In the first quarter of 2022, the development of the Metaverse will experience “ice and fire”. On the one hand, the Metaverse’s performance in the capital market is dismal: Meta, which is fully transforming the Metaverse track, has fallen by more than 40% in market value compared to its historical high in September 2021; Roblox) has fallen nearly 56% in market value this year; Zhongqingbao, a metaverse concept stock in the A-share market, has fallen more than 28% in market value this year. On the other hand, Metaverse has received unabated attention from the government and technology companies: Google, Adobe, Inspur, and other domestic and foreign companies are still optimistic about Metaverse and launch Metaverse software and hardware products; at the National Two Sessions in 2022, Metaverse It caused heated discussions among the representatives; the government work reports of Shanghai, Wuhan, Hefei, Chengdu and other places mentioned Metaverse. Metaverse concepts such as “industrial metaverse”, “consumer metaverse” and “social metaverse” emerge one after another. As an emerging technology, the Metaverse needs to be integrated with application scenarios in stages. Practitioners should also respect the laws of the industry.
Concept of consumption. Uncertainty factors in the development of the metaverse increase
Metaverse will enter the public eye in the first half of 2021. Metaverse, which aggregates a variety of information technologies, displays rich application scenarios, and nurtures a broad market space, has attracted great attention from enterprises, investors, scientific research institutions, and the media. In the past year, domestic and foreign companies have invested heavily in investment, the leaders of science and technology companies have been strongly promoted, and the governments of various countries have taken positive attitudes. These positive signals have strengthened the industry’s confidence in the broad development prospects of Metaverse. But at the same time, phenomena such as applying concepts, abuse scenarios, and capital hype cast an uncertain shadow over the development of the metaverse.
Phenomenon 1: The layout of the metaverse becomes more diversified. The concept of the metaverse is relatively clearly defined, covering the physical real world, the digital virtual world, and the virtual and real world that mirror each other. It has become a consensus with the characteristics of high immersion, experienceable economic attributes, and independent creation. The above concepts and characteristics are also Differentiate the metaverse from other emerging technologies such as virtual reality, blockchain, artificial intelligence, etc., and present it as a collection of several types of technologies. At the same time, the “Industrial Metaverse”, “Consumer Metaverse” and “Social Metaverse” have enabled the Metaverse to expand into popular application fields, which has promoted the diversification of the Metaverse layout to a certain extent. , the phenomenon of “rubbing hot spots” to promote their own technologies and products.
Phenomenon 2: Metaverse application scenarios are sci-fi. The Metaverse originated from foreign science fiction. In recent years, science fiction films such as “Ready Player One” have also involved the Metaverse, depicting it as a brand new world that is difficult to distinguish between true and false, and each life and production scene is full of science fiction. However, the application scenarios of the Metaverse are quite different from those of science fiction works. The application scenarios of the Metaverse advocated by some companies not only do not conform to the actual development of this application field, but also deviate from the basic laws of physics, electronics and biology, and even apply industrial Internet, VR + social networking. , blockchain traceability and other existing scenarios, replacing the core technology name with a certain field of metaverse, excessive marketing, causing suspicion and confusion in various industries about the metaverse.
Phenomenon 3: Metaverse capital elements bubble. The concept of Metaverse covers a variety of new-generation information technologies and shows the new needs of the above technologies, and it is possible to open up a new market space. Therefore, most capitals have a positive attitude towards the Metaverse and invest in the market in advance. However, there are metaverse investment targets that heat up the concept and create inflated valuations, and there are those who can realize it at a higher point; there are virtual currency traders that are explicitly prohibited by the state, such as “coin speculation” and “mining” by applying the metaverse concept. There are even those who blatantly commit fraud, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal acts under the banner of the Metaverse. The above-mentioned people with ulterior motives have made big, evil, and indiscriminate articles on the Metaverse in the capital field, which makes the risk of bubbles go with them, affects the confidence of investors and reduces the effective support of capital elements for the Metaverse.
Echelon development Metaverse landing or will experience “three steps”
The metaverse points to a new production and living space for human beings, and its influence will extend to a certain extent from the field of technology and industry to the field of social governance. It is expected to subvert the current economic rules, reshape the concept of government governance, and enrich existing cultural forms. Although from the perspective of the maturity of related technologies, it will take decades or even longer for the Metaverse to truly land. However, it is currently aimed at the pain points and needs of the industry and effectively applied according to the development stage of the Metaverse and its related technologies, which can be divided into three The value of realizing industry empowerment in stages is huge.
Stage 1: Deconstructing industry needs and consolidating the underlying foundation. As an emerging technology, the development of the Metaverse is inseparable from the traction and drive of the needs of various industries. The pain points of various industries are expected to be alleviated or solved with the help of the Metaverse, and it will also promote the progress of the underlying basic technologies of the Metaverse. This virtuous cycle will be the development logic of the metaverse for at least the next 10 years. For example, the development of pan-entertainment industries such as games and videos is limited by terminals such as mobile phones and computers, and it is difficult to give users a more realistic experience. Therefore, the virtual reality technology at the bottom of the Metaverse can give full play to its immersive advantages and continuously optimize the user experience according to the core demands of the industry. , open the market. The user groups in the market will also put forward requirements for high concurrent computing, large bandwidth transmission and 4K/8K display of virtual reality, which will drive the progress of the underlying technology of virtual reality and help the Metaverse to land.
Stage 2: Reshape application scenarios and expand emerging models. After the first stage of development, the metaverse is more closely integrated with application scenarios, and the underlying technologies such as virtual reality, computing, and networking are relatively mature, so the reshaping of specific industry scenarios will be realized on the basis of meeting the needs of various industries. For example, in the field of industrial manufacturing, the traditional model is “design, proofing, mass production, and delivery”, and value is obtained after delivery. The application of Metaverse will reshape the above process and expand the value output model: through real-time data transmission, high-precision product modeling and comprehensive factory simulation, and coordinating technologies such as digital twins and industrial Internet, a certain link of the traditional model can output value. , to solve the problems of high cost of proofing, difficulty in mass production of non-standardized products, and deviations between delivered products and design concepts.
Stage 3: Subvert the theoretical framework and change the production and lifestyle. After the first two stages of development, the Metaverse has been deeply integrated with various industries, and has produced many new industries, new markets and new spaces. The characteristics of the Metaverse, such as the integration of virtual and real, and decentralization, will subtly affect people’s production and life. If a metaverse service is provided for one or several cities, the computing power demand and network load will be unimaginable, so theoretical frameworks such as Moore’s Law, von Neumann computer structure and the Internet OSI model will be iterated or subverted to meet the needs of the metaverse application scenario requirements. At the same time, the coexistence of real characters and virtual characters in the metaverse forms a more complex and constantly changing relationship, which will also have a huge impact on social governance and moral concepts, thereby changing people’s production and lifestyle.
Rational and prudent three suggestions for the development of the metaverse
Suggestion 1: Respect the laws of the industry. After a long period of development in manufacturing, finance, education and other industries, their internal logic has become relatively clear. The significance of technological innovation is to promote social development. Therefore, packaging the metaverse as a tool to replace a certain industry is neither in line with the reality of the metaverse nor in line with the law of industry development. Promoting the development of the Metaverse is inseparable from the in-depth excavation and accurate understanding of the inherent laws of the development of various industries, and only by empowering the industry can it achieve development.
Suggestion 2: Don’t use the “metaverse” trend to falsely mention concepts. Whether it is enterprises, governments or capital, they should view the development and role of the metaverse rationally. The foundation of the metaverse is immersive experience, which is in line with the general development trend of the deep integration of information technology and society. In the past 70 years, the degree of “intimacy” between humans and technology has become higher and higher. Information technology terminals have experienced the development process from mainframes to minicomputers, to PCs, and then to mobile terminals and virtual reality devices. Experience is the inevitable result of continuously satisfying people’s need for technological sensibility. Therefore, the Metaverse is a continuation of previous technological innovations, and it is too early to be subverted.
Recommendation 3: Inclusive and prudent innovation. To develop the Metaverse, we should calmly explore the technologies behind the concepts, such as virtual reality, blockchain, etc., and at the same time delineate the development route of the Metaverse technology and predict the development prospects of the technology. It is necessary to fully accommodate the twists and turns and slowness of technological innovation, but also to clearly oppose the hype of the concept of the metaverse through technological innovation. At the same time, innovatively excavate application scenarios, and use the characteristics of Metaverse immersion, strong interaction, and decentralization to meet the core demands of the scenarios, thereby driving the implementation of the Metaverse.
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